1998 Draft: An Historical Retrospective

I don’t really know what ‘An Historical Retrospective’ means, but I like to think this fits the bill. The upcoming 10-year anniversary of the 1998 draft means that most of the guys picked are nearing free-agency, so it seems like a fair enough time to evaluate how each team faired in their selections. At the request of Adrien Monk, I decided to look at the first 10 picks. I might finish out the first round later — we’ll see how it goes.

A quick explanation of the charts: The include the initial pick, any players that player was traded for, any players THOSE players were traded for, etc. ‘WS’ is the number of Win Shares that player produced each year, ‘Salary’ is how much they were paid, ‘Market Value’ is how much the team would have had to spend to get a player of that quality on the open market, and ‘Savings’ is how much the team saved by not having to spend the market-rate. Without further ado…

#10 The team: Texas Rangers; The pick: Carlos Pena, 1B
Pena was one of the best prospects in the game in 2001, but between Rafael Palmeiro and Mark Teixeira the Rangers felt that first base was covered for the foreseeable future, so in a period of two years they traded away Pena, Travis Hafner, and Adrian Gonzalez (Combined 2007 RBI total: 321). Pena had the courtesy to wait until he was a Devil Ray to become a star, but the only thing the Rangers got for their excellent pick was Gerald Laird and eventually Vicente Padilla (by way of flipping Ryan Ludwick for Ricardo Rodriguez, and Rodriguez for Padilla’s last arbitration year).

Grade: C+. The Rangers made a very good pick followed by a very poor trade, but still ended up getting a cheap, above-average catcher and a solid 200-innings of work from Padilla in 2005. They’ll have Laird at a below-market rate for the next two years if they don’t flip him to make way for Jarrod Saltalamacchia before then.

#9: The team: San Diego Padres; The pick: Sean Burroughs, 3B
When viewed in light of his status as a much-ballyhooed prospect (I wish there were more social scenarios where the phrase ‘much-ballyhooed’ was applicable), Burroughs seems like a bust of the highest order; but the Padres still managed to get two very good seasons from him for near the league minimum. Not satisfied, the Padres swapped him for Dewon Brazelton, who was a bust any way you slice it.

Grade: C+. Burroughs never developed the power or the .330 average that he was supposed to, but he did deliver back-to-back seasons that would have cost the Padres eight-figures to replace on the open market.

#8: The team: Toronto Blue Jays; The pick: Felipe Lopez, IF
Lopez was a decent hitter in the minors, struggled in the majors, and was shipped away in a four-team deal that brought back prospect Jason Arnold, who remains tied with Cory and myself for most innings pitched in Blue Jays history. Lopez eventually turned into a decent enough player.

Grade: D+. It would have been an acceptable pick had they kept Lopez and stuck him at short, because the Jays haven’t had a decent shortstop since Tony Fernandez.

#7: The team: Cincinnati Reds; The pick: Austin Kearns, OF
Another prospect who didn’t live up to high-expectations. Kearns is the best of the bunch so far as he actually saved the Reds $30 million over five seasons despite being in and out of the lineup. The trade that sent him (and Felipe Lopez) to the Nationals for a pair of relievers looks as uninspired now as it did then.

Grade: B. Another moderately-disappointed prospect dealt before he got expensive for a lackluster return. Kearns gave the Reds solid production but he was rarely healthy and they were never good. Bray could still be a solid late-innings reliever, so there’s some room for improvement here.

#6: The team: Minnesota Twins; The pick: Ryan Mills, P
Career minor-league record: 17-40, career major-league innings: 0

Grade: F-. An F doesn’t seem low enough — Mills couldn’t even get anybody out in the minors.

We’ll continue the countdown to number one in a few days…

Brian Roberts

Dear Cubs,

I am writing this on behalf of the league and it’s fans asking you to sign off on a trade to send four of your best prospects (Jose Ceda, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and Ronny Cedeno) to the Baltimore Orioles in return for Brian Roberts.

Your manager, Lou Pinella, is planning on batting Ryan Theriot (.326 OBP in 2007) and Alfonso Soriano (.337) in the first two spots of the order. Brian Roberts had a .377 OBP last year. He stole 50 bases and was only caught 7 times. Yes, he costs a little more ($14.3 million over the next two years), but you’re the Cubs. You’re one of the top five most marketable franchises in baseball. And you haven’t won a pennant in over 60 years. The difference between Roberts and Mark DeRosa is something in the area of three extra wins, plus whatever wins you gain from pushing Theriot to the eight-hole. Last year you only won the division by two games. A three-game improvement could prevent you from having to blame your failure to capture the pennant on a goat or a season-ticket holder.

Ceda, Gallagher, Patterson, and Cedeno are all nice prospects, but none of them are likely to be stars. Cost controlled, above-average players can be a wonderful thing, but again: YOU’RE THE CUBS. You need to worry about being efficient with your roster space, not your money (not that you’ve ever been particularly efficient with your money). Here’s a suggestion: Take the the extra money you make from selling ‘Cubs 2008 World Series’ t-shirts and use it to sign a player who has big bonus demands in the upcoming June draft. The Tigers have done it the last two years and it’s gotten them Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello, both of whom are far better than any prospects you would be giving up.

In closing, let me just say that you have given so much to the league and it’s fans over the years. The music of Steve Goodman. The Sandberg Game. Gary Busey’s performance as Chet Steadman in the movie ‘Rookie of the Year.’ We the fans want to give something back. We want to cheer you on as you try to prevent going 100 years without a World Series title. Trading four of your prospects (who, let’s face it, you’re probably going to screw up anyway) for one of the best second basemen in the league is a step in the right direction.

Sincerely yours,

Tony

Fan Trade Proposals

 

“I think I got it. How bout this? How bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams for Barry Bonds! What do you think? We’ll have Griffey and Bonds in the same outfield. Now you got a team!” – George Costanza

 

So many people seem to think that they have what it takes to be a general manager. There are a few types of these people. You’ve got the “let’s trade every sub-par player we don’t need for one major star”, “let’s swap our big star player for another team’s star player”, “let’s trade for a player we don’t need”, and so on. Now, that’s not to say that every fan trade proposal is stupid, but Tony and I have come across a couple that made us chuckle. If, coincidentally, you are reading this and find out it was one of your trade proposals, I apologize…but…it was bad.

1) I’ve been thinking about it, I wonder is such a trade would work: Lee, Laffey, Jordan Brown, Barfield, Cabrera, Marte, Francisco, Choo, and Dellucci for Bedard, Roberts, Aubrey Huff, and Jay Payton.

Basically..we’ll trade you our entire bench/minor league team for the only good players you have. Do we have a deal or what? This is one of those “spare parts” trades. It’s like if you walked into Best Buy with a shoe box, pencil, empty can, and whatever other crap you could find in your room and tried to exchange it for an HD TV. Somehow, I don’t think Best Buy is gonna bite, just like I don’t think the Orioles would here.

2) Trade Washburn for Griffey straight up

This one just made me laugh. I’m not sure why.

3) Do the Indians have the prospects to pull off an Adam Dunn deal? Doesn’t that make absolute perfect sense? Is Shoppach for Dunn a pipe dream?

You see it all the time. The backup catcher traded for the 40 homer guy. You actually might see this trade go down, but only at a unicorn parade with a leprechaun, Bigfoot and the abominable snowman by your side.

Tony here, picking up where Cory left off with some Ranger-related fan-trades…

4) The Rangers trade: Michael Young and Chris Davis for Joe Nathan, Adam Everett, and Brain Deusing (some minor league pitcher)
I’m not sure that any team in the history of baseball has ever been in a situation where they should trade their best Major League hitter AND best Minor League hitter for a closer, a defensive-specialist, and ’some minor league pitcher.’ It’s ‘Duensing,’ by the way.

5) Joe Nathan for Josh Hamilton
Here’s a list of the players who have taken up the bulk of the playing time in centerfield each year for the Rangers this century: Gabe Kapler, Ruben Rivera, Ryan Christenson, Laynce Nix, Gary Matthews, Kenny Lofton. Matthews had a couple of nice years, but the best thing he ever did for the Rangers was sign that ridiculous 5/55 deal with the Angels. Lofton was the most productive of the bunch in his half-year with the team, but he was 67 years old and he can’t be expected to keep it up forever. Why anyone would be in favor of trading the first legitimate long-term centerfielder the Rangers have had since Ruben Mateo broke his leg is beyond me.

Kenny Lofton poses for a photograph during his rookie season.

The Rangers: A Positional, Historical Retrospective: Part 1

Here’s a new feature I’ve been cooking up — a look back at how each position has progressed (or regressed, if you prefer) throughout my tenure as a Rangers fan. I decided to start in 1991, the beginning of the Pudge/Juan Gonzalez Era as well as the year I made the leap from tee-ball to machine pitch — definitely a year to remember.

Part 1: Catchers

1991-2002: The Pudge Era
In 12 years behind the plate in Arlington (starting at the age of 19), Pudge was a 10 time All-Star, won 10 Gold Gloves, won an MVP award, and was the face of the franchise. If it were up to me he’d still be back there. He should have retired a Ranger.

2003: The Einar Diaz Year
Let’s move on.

2004-2006: The Rod Barajas Era
He was the backstop for a couple of teams who made playoff runs, but in his three years in Arlington, Barajas flew out to left approximately 900 times.

2007: The Gerald Laird Transitional Phase
I’m calling it this because it’s becoming pretty apparant that Gerald Laird isn’t the long-term answer behind the plate. He’s a great left-handed side of a catching platoon but doesn’t hit righties well enough to play everyday. I’d like to see him shopped around while he still has that ‘everyday catcher’ tag on him.

Now let’s hop into the DeLorean, gun it to 88, and see what Marty and Doc Brown have to say about the future of the position…

If Taylor Teagarden (325/464/623) has to stay in A-ball much longer he’s going to start repeating Will Hunting’s “Do you know how fuckin’ easy this is to me? This is a joke!” speech to his teammates. He should be in Double-A by the All-Star Break and, if he can stay healthy, should be ready to assume full-time duty in Arlington by 2009. I have high hopes for the Taylor Teagarden Era — By all accounts he’s a terrific defender and I see him as a .260-.280 hitter with 20 homer power and enough walks to keep his OBP around .400.

2007 Draft Review

Before today, I couldn’t pick Blake Beavan out of a lineup. I knew he was from Texas; I knew he was 6-7; I knew that when he was born, the Gods reached down and turned his right arm into a thunderbolt; and I knew that the future of the Rangers depended on Beavan falling to them at #17.

So today I found myself at work checking my cell phone every five minutes to see if I had gotten the text message from Cory assuring me that the golden boy from Irving, who I couldn’t tell from Adam, would be staying in Texas to one day lead the Rangers to the promise land.

At 2:18, I got the message that the Indians, the other team looking closely at Beavan, had opted for Beau Mills and 20 minutes later, the message ‘the rangers take beavan’ assured me that the team’s future was set.

About an hour later my enthusiasm was squashed a bit when I received the message ‘Rangers get cf leadoff guy julio borbon’. I’m no scout and I couldn’t name more than 25-30 guys who were available for the taking in this draft but Julio Borbon was a name that I recognized — unfortunately from the ‘Please God don’t let the Rangers waste a top pick on this guy’ list that I had crudely put together on Notepad the night before.

It’s not so much that I DISLIKE Borbon (although his 6 walks in 174 at bats does make me cringe). It’s the fact that last night I stumbled upon a center fielder from Georgia Tech name Danny Payne who, like Borbon, was entering the draft as a Junior this year. A quick look at their stats the last two years made me wonder why anyone would rather have Borbon.

Both are considered terrific defenders and Payne’s arm earned him a spot as Georgia Tech’s closer while Borbon’s arm is described as ‘below average’. Borbon has two inches on Payne and thus is considered to have the almighty ‘upside’ label applied to him while Payne falls into the David Eckstein ‘limited upside’ category, and we all know you can never win a championship with those Eckstein-type gu…oh, right. Nevermind.

If you had to bet your life on one of these guys being a solid big leaguer in five years, which one would you pick? The guy who has been consistently better over the past two years or the guy who has been hurt, hasn’t been able to control the strike-zone even at the collegiate level, but is two inches taller?

Anyway I decided to do a quick run-down of who The Powers That Be drafted and who yours truly would have gone with instead for the Rangers 1st and 2nd round picks.

Round 1 – #17
Rangers’ pick: Blake Beavan, RHP (HS)
Tony’s pick: Beavan

I’m a sucker for local high-school pitchers. Plus our team ERA is nearing double digits.

Round 1 – #24
Rangers’ Pick: Michael Main, RHP (HS)
Tony’s pick: Rick Porcello, RHP (HS)

Porcello rated as one of the best high-school pitchers in the country but slipped because of signability concerns. When you have two top-25 picks and somebody that talented slides to you at 24, you have to roll the dice. Unless you want to save that extra $6 million dollars to sign Kip Wells this off season. That said, I’m not too upset about the Main pick as he was a top-15 talent by most accounts.

Supplemental Round – #35
Rangers’ pick: Julio Borbon, OF (TENNESEE)
Tony’s pick: Corey Brown, OF (OKLAHOMA STATE)

I may be biased towards the fellow Cowboy, but Brown hit .339 with 21 homers, 23 steals, and 62 walks. I’ll take two, please.

Supplemental Round – #44
Rangers’ pick: Neil Ramirez, RHP (HS)
Tony’s pick: Danny Payne, OF (GEORGIA TECH)

For the reasons outlined above. And yes, this post will be mysteriously deleted if he turns into David Hulse 2.0.

Supplemental Round – #54
Rangers’ pick: Tommy Hunter, RHP (ALABAMA)
Tonys’ pick: Matt Harvey, RHP (HS)

This seems like the right spot to roll the dice on Harvey, a top-15 talent who apparently was asking for first born children in order to sign, because teams were staying away from him like you would a pitcher tossing a no-hitter.

Round 2 – #80
Rangers’ pick: Matt West, 3B (HS)
Tony’s pick: Kyle Russell, OF (TEXAS)

Like Brown, Russell played in one of the toughest conferences in America, and like Brown, Russell raked like he was in little league. He didn’t show the strike-zone recognition that Brown did, but he mashed 28 homers. Give him to Rudy Jaramillo and see if he can’t turn him into Justin Morneau.

So that’s it through two rounds. The Rangers ended up with Beavan, Main, Borbon, Ramirez, Hunter, and West while I get Beavan, Porcello, Brown, Payne, Harvey, and Russell. For the record, I come away with three consensus top-15 talents (all high-school pitchers) and three guys who tore the cover off the ball in top college conferences. On the other hand, I would probably end up wasting $10-12 million that could be given to Jeff DaVanon next winter. I guess that’s why I’m not a big league GM.

Tony

Texas Rangers April/May Report Card

Catchers: C-

Laird has been throwing runners out at a decent clip, and his walk-rate is up, but aside from that he hasn’t done anything to show that he should be in the Rangers’ long term plans.

Infield: B

Tex is hitting like his old-self, MY is coming around, and Blalock was showing signs of tapping into his potential before hitting the DL. Kinsler has managed to rank as having only an average season thus far after tearing the cover off the ball for a month.

Outfield: C-

Wilkerson, Lofton, Catalanotto, Cruz, and Sosa may be one of the worst outfield rotations in recent memory. Wilkerson was actually having a quietly useful year before he got hurt (250/324/500). Catalanotto and Cruz have been train-wrecks and Lofton has played about as well as you could expect a 62 year old to play. At least Sosa’s chase of 600 homers has given the fans a reason to come to the ballpark.

Bench: A-

Every year the Rangers sign a couple of journeymen to fill the 24th or 25th spots on the bench only to have them end up as productive starters by the All-Star break. Dellucci did it in ‘05; DeRosa and GMJ did it last year; Ramon Vazquez and Victor Diaz are doing it this year. Kinda makes you wonder why Jon Daniels felt the need to pay Frank Catalanotto 13 million dollars.

Rotation: D

I wanted to give this collective group a D+ but the ‘plus’ seemed to give the grade an unwarranted positive connotation. Millwood and Padilla were supposed to be the work-horses but Padilla has been all-around horrible and Millwood has hurt himself with walks. Robinson Tejeda has shown flashes of effectiveness that can at least warrant putting him in long term discussions. The Brandon McCarthy Experiment is beginning to take his place alongside other disasters such as the Titanic and the Hindenburg. At least the DVD-trio should be arriving so…oh…oh, right. Nevermind.

Bullpen: A

I said before the year that the Rangers had the second best bullpen in the league (to the Twins) and now I think that may have been conservative. Benoit, Eye, Francisco, Gagne, Littleton, Mahay, Aki, and C.J. have ranged from ‘good’ to ‘outstanding’. Feldman is the only regular in the pen to have struggled so far (16 walks in 20 2/3 IP). Daniels should be scouring the league for teams in need of bullpen help.

Coaching: B+

I like Ron Washington. He said before the season that Blalock was his project and before going on the DL Hank was putting up a 285/335/493 line. I like guys who back up their word. He’s had his disputes with players (Tex and Laird, publically), but at least he’s laid his cards on the table and challenged his players to get better. If the team doesn’t listen to his plea to be more patient at the plate after almost being no-hit twice then maybe we should lift some of the blame for this slow start off of Wash.

Front Office: D-

I want to like Jon Daniels. When he signed on in 2005 I thought he would be the one to lead the transition from the failed A-Rod era to the Michael Young era of Rangers baseball. I loved the Soriano trade and even tried to defend the Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki/Adam Eaton trade that hurts just to type. But the fact is that when Daniels was given the reigns, the team had control of valuable bargaining commodities in Soriano, Young, Gonzalez, John Danks, Nick Masset, and Francisco Cordero. Daniels has turned those six chips into a half year of Carlos Lee (playoff appearance not included),a month of Adam Eaton, the remains of Brad Wilkerson, the pitcher formerly known as Brandon McCarthy, and (the one bright spot) Akinori Otsuka. He has also shelled out big bucks to Vicente Padilla (33.75 million) and Frank Catalanotto (13.5 million). which ended up losing him the 16th pick in the draft. How he handles the potential trades of Tex, Aki, and Gagne will go a long way in determining how long Daniels stays at the helm.

Tony