Dear Orioles,
I am writing to you on behalf of both the league and it’s fans, asking you to please accept a trade with the Chicago Cubs in which you would give them your All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts in return for four of their best young players: Jose Ceda, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and Ronny Cedeno.
I understand your hesitancy to trade away your best player, but let’s be honest: even with him at the keystone you’re not going sniff 80 wins. You’ll need some luck to win 75. Robert’s contract is up in two years and unless you want to drastically overpay him once he’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s not going to be stick around any longer than he has to. It’s time to cash him in for some talented players who are contractually obligated to stay in Baltimore for longer than two years.
Normally, I would say that a rebuilding team should target high-upside players who could develop into the caliber of star which cannot usually be found on the free-agent market and unfortunately, none of the players mentioned in the package above fit that bill. Ceda has the most upside of the bunch and he projects as a reliever. But your team, once Roberts is removed, may have the worst middle-infield in the history of time, and there’s really nothing better on the horizon. Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey, and Freddie Bynum are the only other 2B/SS on the depth chart, and Bynum’s predicted OPS (.659, by PECOTA) is the best of the bunch. Over a full season, a Patterson/Cedeno middle-infield would result in about 10 more wins than one with Bynum/Hernandez getting the bulk of the playing time. Having cost-controlled players like Patterson, Cedeno, Matt Wieters, and Nick Markakis in the lineup will allow you to throw your money at uber-stars like Baltimore-native Mark Teixeira when they reach free agency.
In closing, I would just like to say that I am by no means a Baltimore Orioles fan, or even a supporter. The reason that I would like to see you make this deal, which is undoubtedly a good economic move for your organization, is so that I can sleep at night, and not lay awake wondering how someone can be smart enough to accumulate enough money to buy a baseball team and yet dumb enough to blow $600 million on payroll this decade without ever cracking 80 wins. Frankly, it baffles me.
Sincerely yours,
Tony
