1998 Draft: An Historical Retrospective

I don’t really know what ‘An Historical Retrospective’ means, but I like to think this fits the bill. The upcoming 10-year anniversary of the 1998 draft means that most of the guys picked are nearing free-agency, so it seems like a fair enough time to evaluate how each team faired in their selections. At the request of Adrien Monk, I decided to look at the first 10 picks. I might finish out the first round later — we’ll see how it goes.

A quick explanation of the charts: The include the initial pick, any players that player was traded for, any players THOSE players were traded for, etc. ‘WS’ is the number of Win Shares that player produced each year, ‘Salary’ is how much they were paid, ‘Market Value’ is how much the team would have had to spend to get a player of that quality on the open market, and ‘Savings’ is how much the team saved by not having to spend the market-rate. Without further ado…

#10 The team: Texas Rangers; The pick: Carlos Pena, 1B
Pena was one of the best prospects in the game in 2001, but between Rafael Palmeiro and Mark Teixeira the Rangers felt that first base was covered for the foreseeable future, so in a period of two years they traded away Pena, Travis Hafner, and Adrian Gonzalez (Combined 2007 RBI total: 321). Pena had the courtesy to wait until he was a Devil Ray to become a star, but the only thing the Rangers got for their excellent pick was Gerald Laird and eventually Vicente Padilla (by way of flipping Ryan Ludwick for Ricardo Rodriguez, and Rodriguez for Padilla’s last arbitration year).

Grade: C+. The Rangers made a very good pick followed by a very poor trade, but still ended up getting a cheap, above-average catcher and a solid 200-innings of work from Padilla in 2005. They’ll have Laird at a below-market rate for the next two years if they don’t flip him to make way for Jarrod Saltalamacchia before then.

#9: The team: San Diego Padres; The pick: Sean Burroughs, 3B
When viewed in light of his status as a much-ballyhooed prospect (I wish there were more social scenarios where the phrase ‘much-ballyhooed’ was applicable), Burroughs seems like a bust of the highest order; but the Padres still managed to get two very good seasons from him for near the league minimum. Not satisfied, the Padres swapped him for Dewon Brazelton, who was a bust any way you slice it.

Grade: C+. Burroughs never developed the power or the .330 average that he was supposed to, but he did deliver back-to-back seasons that would have cost the Padres eight-figures to replace on the open market.

#8: The team: Toronto Blue Jays; The pick: Felipe Lopez, IF
Lopez was a decent hitter in the minors, struggled in the majors, and was shipped away in a four-team deal that brought back prospect Jason Arnold, who remains tied with Cory and myself for most innings pitched in Blue Jays history. Lopez eventually turned into a decent enough player.

Grade: D+. It would have been an acceptable pick had they kept Lopez and stuck him at short, because the Jays haven’t had a decent shortstop since Tony Fernandez.

#7: The team: Cincinnati Reds; The pick: Austin Kearns, OF
Another prospect who didn’t live up to high-expectations. Kearns is the best of the bunch so far as he actually saved the Reds $30 million over five seasons despite being in and out of the lineup. The trade that sent him (and Felipe Lopez) to the Nationals for a pair of relievers looks as uninspired now as it did then.

Grade: B. Another moderately-disappointed prospect dealt before he got expensive for a lackluster return. Kearns gave the Reds solid production but he was rarely healthy and they were never good. Bray could still be a solid late-innings reliever, so there’s some room for improvement here.

#6: The team: Minnesota Twins; The pick: Ryan Mills, P
Career minor-league record: 17-40, career major-league innings: 0

Grade: F-. An F doesn’t seem low enough — Mills couldn’t even get anybody out in the minors.

We’ll continue the countdown to number one in a few days…

Re: Brian Roberts

Dear Orioles,

I am writing to you on behalf of both the league and it’s fans, asking you to please accept a trade with the Chicago Cubs in which you would give them your All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts in return for four of their best young players: Jose Ceda, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and Ronny Cedeno.

I understand your hesitancy to trade away your best player, but let’s be honest: even with him at the keystone you’re not going sniff 80 wins.  You’ll need some luck to win 75. Robert’s contract is up in two years and unless you want to drastically overpay him once he’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s not going to be stick around any longer than he has to. It’s time to cash him in for some talented players who are contractually obligated to stay in Baltimore for longer than two years.

Normally, I would say that a rebuilding team should target high-upside players who could develop into the caliber of star which cannot usually be found on the free-agent market and unfortunately, none of the players mentioned in the package above fit that bill. Ceda has the most upside of the bunch and he projects as a reliever. But your team, once Roberts is removed, may have the worst middle-infield in the history of time, and there’s really nothing better on the horizon. Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey, and Freddie Bynum are the only other 2B/SS on the depth chart, and Bynum’s predicted OPS (.659, by PECOTA) is the best of the bunch. Over a full season, a Patterson/Cedeno middle-infield would result in about 10 more wins than one with Bynum/Hernandez getting the bulk of the playing time. Having cost-controlled players like Patterson, Cedeno, Matt Wieters, and Nick Markakis in the lineup will allow you to throw your money at uber-stars like Baltimore-native Mark Teixeira when they reach free agency.

In closing, I would just like to say that I am by no means a Baltimore Orioles fan, or even a supporter. The reason that I would like to see you make this deal, which is undoubtedly a good economic move for your organization, is so that I can sleep at night, and not lay awake wondering how someone can be smart enough to accumulate enough money to buy a baseball team and yet dumb enough to blow $600 million on payroll this decade without ever cracking 80 wins. Frankly, it baffles me.

Sincerely yours,

Tony

Brian Roberts

Dear Cubs,

I am writing this on behalf of the league and it’s fans asking you to sign off on a trade to send four of your best prospects (Jose Ceda, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and Ronny Cedeno) to the Baltimore Orioles in return for Brian Roberts.

Your manager, Lou Pinella, is planning on batting Ryan Theriot (.326 OBP in 2007) and Alfonso Soriano (.337) in the first two spots of the order. Brian Roberts had a .377 OBP last year. He stole 50 bases and was only caught 7 times. Yes, he costs a little more ($14.3 million over the next two years), but you’re the Cubs. You’re one of the top five most marketable franchises in baseball. And you haven’t won a pennant in over 60 years. The difference between Roberts and Mark DeRosa is something in the area of three extra wins, plus whatever wins you gain from pushing Theriot to the eight-hole. Last year you only won the division by two games. A three-game improvement could prevent you from having to blame your failure to capture the pennant on a goat or a season-ticket holder.

Ceda, Gallagher, Patterson, and Cedeno are all nice prospects, but none of them are likely to be stars. Cost controlled, above-average players can be a wonderful thing, but again: YOU’RE THE CUBS. You need to worry about being efficient with your roster space, not your money (not that you’ve ever been particularly efficient with your money). Here’s a suggestion: Take the the extra money you make from selling ‘Cubs 2008 World Series’ t-shirts and use it to sign a player who has big bonus demands in the upcoming June draft. The Tigers have done it the last two years and it’s gotten them Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello, both of whom are far better than any prospects you would be giving up.

In closing, let me just say that you have given so much to the league and it’s fans over the years. The music of Steve Goodman. The Sandberg Game. Gary Busey’s performance as Chet Steadman in the movie ‘Rookie of the Year.’ We the fans want to give something back. We want to cheer you on as you try to prevent going 100 years without a World Series title. Trading four of your prospects (who, let’s face it, you’re probably going to screw up anyway) for one of the best second basemen in the league is a step in the right direction.

Sincerely yours,

Tony